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throw0101dtoday at 2:44 PM2 repliesview on HN

Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform:

> […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of World War II, the median ten-year market-adjusted return of recent winners has been negative for 93% of the time. The case for diversifying concentrated positions in individual stocks, particularly in recent market winners, is even stronger than most investors realize.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4541122


Replies

M3L0NM4Ntoday at 3:12 PM

I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.

show 1 reply
dheeratoday at 3:43 PM

> Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform

This is more of a mathematical axiom than a financial effect, because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them.