alt Hacker NewsIf a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless.
I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
Replies
tjwebbnorfolk • today at 3:31 PM
ye, the stock market isn't magic, it's just a collection of what people think. and people can be very wrong in a big way.
nradov • today at 3:37 PM
Buddy I think you missed the joke.
EA-3167 • today at 5:32 PM
Not at all, if someone tells me that "This stock is historically likely to regress to and beyond the mean," it's information I can use to evaluate my risk tolerance. Just because a piece of information doesn't let you time the market like a psychic doesn't make it worthless, it's just not what you were looking for.
> I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
I once ran across the comment that if you simply predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you'd be correct 80% of the time. Not sure how true that is (can't find the source).
Allegedly momentum investing does pretty well:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing
(I'm more of an index guy myself.)