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smallmancontrovtoday at 1:58 PM2 repliesview on HN

Oh, yeah, that's cooking lol: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL663067003Q

Speaking of which, I noticed that the big market reversal during the beginning of the Iran war happened right around when ESLR requirements were due to relax. Is this a transmission mechanism for that? Did some of the big brokerages run a big promotion (0% APR on margin debt!) or something?


Replies

IAmGraydontoday at 3:23 PM

That chart (and many from FRED) is unfortunately not useful without viewing it on a logarithmic scale. Things can look quite parabolic in a linear space, but exponential growth is quite normal in many financial contexts.

Click "edit graph" and change units to "natural log". Now look again. You'll see that the growth in margin loans is absolutely normal, and actually has only recently recovered from the dip caused by the 2008 financial crisis.

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glitchctoday at 3:12 PM

$600+ billion doesn't seem like much. I was expecting more tbh.