Yeah, there's a real opportunity for one of these companies to invest time in a model that's tuned for, to use your term, agent-assisted developement.
Trouble is, everyone inside their buildings seems to believe that no one will be working like that in a year or two.
And every benchmark is "build GTA-6 from nothing, as a single-page web app".
They have to, but also everyone working at 3D printing companies thought "industry 4.0" is going to completely override everything, we are going to print housing and going to print a mug at home and drink coffee out of it.
Today's news that Amazon is hiring 11k interns. I think part of the AI story was used as a convenient excuse to get rid of some "fat" and some covid overhiring and gave companies an out to change course.
I wonder how portable the existing models are for different use cases. As good as they are for greenfield development or working in a single or across a few tightly coupled repos, they're absolutely terrible at debugging distributed systems and make incredibly wrong yet extremely confident assertions all the time.
I don't know if it's a matter of just requiring a tiny amount of optimization or wholesale redesign.
Whether they believe it or not is immaterial. It is the end-goal they want to achieve, because then they own the means of production entirely.
As I said, working ourselves out of our jobs within the span of a few years.
There’s no way to justify their valuations if they get downgraded to a pair programming tool. They need fully agentic stuff to work and replace human engineers to even come close.
Offhand, I’m not even certain whether a model like that could justify the constant retraining we’re doing on the agentic models.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to spend millions or billions on training to reduce hallucinations by 0.3% if your model assumes a human is in the loop to course-correct them.