The amount of anti-Anthropic and anti-Dario posts i've seen on reddit threads has gotten a bit ridiculous.
It feels like your analysis is mostly spot on, it's the confluence of several motivated parties pouring effort into social media.
Many of the posters are pro-foreign models/pro-open source, and most can't distinguish the difference between "open source" and open weight models like Qwen, Minimax, or GLM.
Reminds me of the old "free as in beer" vs "free as in speech" debate. Free beer means you don't pay, but you don't get to see the recipe or change it. Free speech means you get the actual source and the right to study it, modify it, and redistribute it.
Open weight models are basically the beer version. You can download the weights, run them locally, fine-tune them, quantize them, host them on your own boxes — but what you have is a finished product, not the blueprint for how it was built.
Fable as released was censored to the point of being useless for many tasks. Now surprise surprise it's not even available unless you're pre-approved.
Qwen is also censored - although since it's open weight, there are completely uncensored versions available.
The owners of Qwen can't jack up the prices to something I'm unable to pay. They can't take it away.
The owners of Qwen can't log and train on my data.
Open weight models share far more in common with free speech than free beer.
If big daddy Dario and his company are getting pushback it's not being of some motivated group trying to take them down. They brought it on themselves.