> thought for like 20 minutes then just told me it was all "inevitable"

I have in mind an image of ASI as something that's able to seamlessly work across time as if it was weaving cloth. Reasoning about not just first or second order effects, but able to richly play with the nature of causality itself. In the limit, it effects change far into the distant future simply by making only the most minute change in the present then sitting back and waiting for things to play out.

For an AI that can do this, things like "managing subagents" or "context compaction" become child's play. Perhaps we'll know if we're getting close by seeing how well models do at prediction markets.