Right, that number is more of an estimate of the value proposition of the entire AI industry rather than projections of revenue or valuations... it's essentially an estimate on how much the market could theoretically bear. Whether the companies can capture that value is, to your point, rightly a different question.

I do think open weight and other competitor models, especially with better harnesses, will play a significant role in the equation and will result in less concentration in the market. However, I do also think the big AI companies will capture a lot of that value. Partially for the same reasons that the cloud industry has been growing like gangbusters, even pre-AI, despite on-prem being much cheaper: companies will outsource anything that is not deemed a "core competency" for their business.

A lot of the problems you mentioned will be relegated to the consumer market and won't apply to enterprise contracts -- which is where the real money is.