> Europe could offer China a lot to tip the balance

> Any kind of russian success does not serve China in any capacity

That's not what the Chinese policymakers think [0][1].

They view the EU as a has-been that thinks it's a global power but lacks the technology or capability to become one [2].

On the other hand, Russia helps China put pressure on Japan [3], South Korea [4], Central Asia [5], backchannel with India [6], allows China to bypass Hormuz [7], and is transferring military IP to China [8].

Even China's foreign minister Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas this point blank [9] and even the Polish policymaking space recognizes this [10].

[0] - https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.ht...

[1] - https://ies.cass.cn/cn/work/comment/202206/t20220601_5410899...

[2] - https://www.ccpit.org/france/a/20260623/20260623vb86.html

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-b...

[4] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxq38028djo

[5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china-looks-strengthen-ties-ru...

[6] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/23/how-russia-emerged-as-k...

[7] - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3345920/m...

[8] - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme...

[9] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch...

[10] - https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2025-01-...