Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]

You need to resubmit this with a better headline:

People prefer scrolling to sex enough that using the iPhone explains up to half of the U.S. birth decline since 2011.

Surely the electromagnetic radiation from iPhone must be disorienting the storks.

I don't know if it's "birth control" but it will definitely let you know that "Plan B" is not considered "pregnancy-termination" it is still legal in all States.

Here's an anecdote that today's kids are too young to have experienced, but their parents also weren't around for it. I was in middle school when the iPhone became popular. It was pretty sudden, so the social effect was obvious. Their parents probably bought them iPhones because they were addicted too, but it's different when you're in school. Since then have been hoping for a day when this gets undone.

This study uses iPhone usage and birthrates at the county level. The rural/urban distinction for counties has a strong correlation with wideband cellular data coverage, and that effect was even stronger in the early days of the iPhone when cellular data coverage was both weaker and more expensive.

Apple has better data. They know who has an iPhone, and they almost certainly know if they have kids. That info is probably available via ad brokers.

I think the cause is mobile phones giving more people exposure to social networks

https://blog.est.im/2026/stdin-09

ppl are now having better options than raising a baby.

This is a pretty mind blowing result. Moreover, this was before the really addictive apps were available, like TikTok, Reels and YouTube Shorts. So it probably has gotten even worse since then.

TL;DR:

Study claims iPhone contributed to a significant decrease in the birth rate after its release in 2007, when AT&T was the only carrier for the phone, allowing researchers to “isolate an iPhone-specific channel” and compare birth rates in areas with a high AT&T customer base to competitors' areas:

“The diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44.”

Authors go on to muse that “as modern smartphones diffused, time spent with friends in person and sexual activity fell sharply alongside rising consumption of pornography, a possible substitute for partnered sex.”

Nothing to do, of course, with AT&T’s customer base at the time being urban, well-educated, and white, or that U.S. birth rate in the youngest groups had already been falling before 2007 with the trend continuing during study period.

Is porn birth control ? Yes it is. But why is porn free and ubiquitous ?

Surely there's an enormous amount of money behind it, but where's the ROI ?

Porn became easier to access. Men became less horny.

The funny thing is that there was a study or an article suggesting Apple users got more sex than non Apple users.

this comes to show that sex is just entertainment and it is being crowded out from all sides

positive correlation between iphone users being more virgin than others

Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48444543

404

I don’t want to be flippantly dismissive but surely there was a certain other event in 2008 that caused many families to reconsider the financial wisdom of starting a family.

hypergamy

[flagged]

correlation vs causation https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

What makes an iPhone better than Durex is that you can take it out of your pocket and everyone will envy you. In that sense, I think it's an envy-inducing contraceptive tool.

It is "birth control" but in sort of opposite way. People are now much better informed, thanks to internet and devices like iphone. They do not have to relly on state education (that wants more babies) and popular shows like Friends.

State founded school is not going to tell you it costs $1200000 to raise baby, or you have 50% chance it will be taken away.

It will also push stats made in lab controlled conditions, and gloss over unreliability of such medications in real life (like if you would skip a pill for a few days).

Failure rate of birth control in normal life is around 10% per year (if you drink, forget to take pill at very exact time, use antibiotics). So there would be about chance 50% to get unwanted baby over years. Well informed person will not make such mistake.

Edit: about the cost

I said the "cost is", not that they are "spending it". There is lost opportunity, lost salary, lost investments, inflation...

It is not 18, more like 24 years.

Let's do some some math, take $600 rent over 18 years = $129,600. With 5% annual rent increase $202k. If you would reinvest that rental income with 5% yearly return $304k!!!

Stay at home mum for 5 years, at $60k = $300k. If you invest that into retirement account when baby would go to school, for 12 years at 5% yearly return it is $538k