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fastballyesterday at 9:59 PM1 replyview on HN

"The Internet" was not a bubble. Companies with no long-term business model / sufficient product-market fit that were riding hype were the "dotcom bubble". But when those companies crashed, nobody said "I really want to get my hands on their IP", because it wasn't valuable – an important pre-requisite to the the bubble popping. Seems to be a different case here if people actually want the SOTA models.


Replies

A1kmmtoday at 5:23 AM

A bubble just means it is overvalued beyond it's true fundamentals due to speculation on speculation. The underlying asset can still have value, just less than the market price.

Consider Cisco. On the 31st of March, 2000, it was valued at US$77.31 / share, which in inflation adjusted terms is $150.46 (above the current price over 26 years later). This valuation was on the basis of speculation that the price would continue to go up and Cisco would get a large cut of the industry profits. Cisco's business is still valuable, it was just treated as overvalued by the market.

Similarly, if we go back to one of the classic examples of a bubble - consider Dutch tulip prices in 1636; speculation drove future contracts high. But tulips still have value to people today, it's just the price was higher than was sustainable.