> So, the downtown core is going to produce far less in property taxes in the foreseeable future, with fewer tenants paying (at least in short term) occupancy taxes, etc. This is going to play out in a decade.

> According to this, commercial property taxes are about 26 %[1] of the Seattle budget

In WA state, the property tax collected isn't related to the total of the assessed value. The total tax billed across all existing properties typically goes up 1% per year (the "levy lid"), unless voters have allowed a "levy lid lift". That total is apportioned amongst the properties by value.

So if everybody's property values drop in half, their property tax rate doubles (plus a little) and their tax bill stays about the same.

Of course, if commercial property assessments drop and residential assessments stay the same or go up, commercial bills will drop and residential bills will go up. But the total tax bill will still be 1% more than last year.