> The rate of improvement of all models is converging to zero.

That's so obviously not true that I don't even think it's worth the energy to even debate it. It's been said for years, yet here we are, constantly improving. People really don't get RL / the bitter lesson, do they?

> It follows that in a few generations, open models inferencing will be about as good as closed model inferencing.

Not a chance. There's hundreds of billions of dollars on one side, and oom less on the other. There's also scaling laws and information theory. No matter how good, a 30B model will not be able to be better than a 3T+ model, all things being equal.

You are mistaking models becoming "good enough" for an increasingly number of tasks, which I agree is happening, with SotA models stagnating, hitting walls etc. That will not happen for many many years to come.