> but I don't see any historical analogues.

The losers are quickly forgotten. Palm, Blackberry, AOL, MySpace. Yahoo, etc.

Software gets replaced all the time too, you even listed one and didn't realize. 15 years ago you'd call office irreplaceable, now you have to add gsuite to the mix, in 15 years there might be others. I know people that have never had office installed on their PC and use spreadsheets daily.

> It seems that enterprises will pay top dollar for service guarantees, integration, and someone they can sue.

Of course. But why pay $25 per million tokens for sonnet when you can pay $3 for GLM? Both probably running on AWS/Azure/Etc. under some third party.