> 4. Many formerly open source infrastructure components like Redis and Elastic Search have Apache equivalents, but they still command healthy margins.

Elastic just had round of layoffs[1]. Elastic still runs operating losses till Q1 2026 [2], albeit a small one, however just breaking even in operating income is hardly "healthy margins". A P/E of 17 is not exactly signaling confidence given they are growing ~20% y-o-y.

[1] https://www.elastic.co/blog/ceo-ash-kulkarni-announcement-to...

[2] https://ir.elastic.co/News--Events/news/news-details/2025/El...