alt Hacker NewsThe companies don't necessarily need to make back $1T, the investors do, and those investors don't require $1T in profit to do so, they need an asset worth $1T.
Considering leaks suggest Anthropic's ARR would be $47B, that'd be a 20x valuation, but it wouldn't shock me if Anthropic doubles their revenue in the next year or two, in which a 10x revenue could easily support a $1T valuation, and boom there's your ROI, but considering they've raised $135B total, and their ARR is 30% of that, I'd consider that a pretty good ROI, especially if growth continues.
Wait what? Why are you measuring valuation as 20x revenue here? If its a public stock (which is what anthropic plans to be soon), it doesn't matter. Otherwise spacex's valuation should be... 18.67 billion x 20 by your logic but its current valuation is over 2 trillion dollars right now.
ARR literally doesn't mean much in terms of how these companies are valued by investors and it will mean little when it goes public. And yeah 10x their revenue in a year sure but they will also likely 10x their costs if they want to keep scaling