The big thing to me is why are we even running these models on top of an operating system?
What I really want is Claude as a deep part of the operating system.
If that happens then a whole lot of the abstraction of software vanishes along with what we think of today as software jobs. I think many new forms of knowledge work would emerge from this though.
I would think that needs massive local compute but I can't imagine that is not the future down the line.
It’s also not the future SV is incentivized to build. They want everything for rent, nothing can be owned.
Luckily, China is on the verge of a true breakout, I’m not sure what exactly it will be - but I’d make a very large wager the “next iPhone” is Chinese, and will constitute a full blown “Sputnik moment” for the US and SV.
If Americans weren’t forbidden to own Chinese EVs they’d know this. But tariffs mean the breakthrough will be even more unexpected.
Since Chinese actually “sell stuff” I’m guessing their unbeatable lead in AI efficiency, manufacturing, and distribution will produce a step change breakthrough within a decade.