alt Hacker NewsFor existing producers expanding capacity would be a risky move. But it's the perfect time for any newcomers to enter the market. Low yields and worse product don't matter as much right now, and by the time the market cools down you have everything dialed in and can compete on even ground
> it's the perfect time for any newcomers to enter the market
This is a good hypothesis. Curious if anyone has data on the failure rates of new entrants in semiconductors based on how frothy it was on founding.
On one hand, more demand makes selling easier. On the other hand, a shortage makes your input costs (consumable and capital) pricier.
EDIT: It seems like the 2 to 3 year lead time and a crowding effect from new entrants historically made booting up a fab into a boom a bad bet [1]. (The article argues, convincingly, that this time may be different.)
[1] https://www.uncoveralpha.com/p/every-memory-cycle-ends-the-s...