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consensus1today at 6:01 AM1 replyview on HN

A v2 Starlink satellite costs $800K and on average 25 are launched at once. Launch cost for a reusable Falcon 9 is $15 million. So that's $1.4 million per satellite to orbit lasting 5 years that's $280K / sat / y, or $2.8 billion / y to maintain a constellation of 10,000. And SpaceX is not known for complacency. The unit cost will continue to drop.

On the other hand there are currently $63 billion (22.5 years of Starlink cost) of rural broadband subsidies active in the US and it hasn't come close to running all that fiber. So $63 billion to not even finish the US vs $2.8b / y to provide service to the entire world. I think it's safe to conclude that the satellite option is in fact much cheaper.


Replies

Lomliototoday at 8:34 AM

Starlink has 10 MILLION customers. Thats just nothing.

All the investment in Fiber and mobile towers are long lasting investments.

Starlink NEEDS v3 to scale because they already have scaling issues. They need Starship, which doesn't work yet, to work to even send v3 up there.

And while Spacex has some first mover advantage, other companies start doing the same which will eat their margins. Makes it even more complicated to run all of it.

They have to do 300k orbit correction already last year, kessler syndrom can happen which will block access to space for all of us.

We don't even know yet how dangerous the poisoning of our atmosphere will be.