Also unclear how it works for the PhD pipeline. If you roll straight from bachelor's to a doctorate program - you have abysmal earnings for the next 5-6 years of your life.
Indeed. Equally the person who has 4 Years experience in the workplace probably does better than a first year grad.
In other words, when trying to measure value outcomes, what time period should one consider?
And does the rule apply at the college level or the program level? If I churn out 100 people in my law school, can I average their prospects with 50 from my Archaeology degree? Or with 50 from my "music in movies" degree?
Unless a program has a habit of sending the majority of its undergrads into PhDs, that part might not be so hard to resolve -- just exclude everyone who does that from the measurement sample.
You're right that getting a PhD comes with a vow of poverty. Unless your doctorate is in AI.
PhD programs are generally not funded with loans. Professional schools are.