People are so confident that this not-just-a-tool will show signs of ASI/AGI any day now...
I thought the narrative a few months ago was that we had AGI[1]? What happened? It's not like these trillion dollar companies would have an interest in using AGI to hype up their technologies that they would need to replace a percentage of the global workforce over the next few years to justify their current valuations?
/s
Yep, I'm fairly certain that general learning algorithms acting upon an ANN (which is fairly general too, see the universal approximation theorem) can reach and surpass performance of the human brain. As we have approximately zero evidence that the human brain contains "magic," that is something that can't be modeled by an ANN of a practically feasible size. (I know about chaotic processes that can't be modeled precisely. The "magic" here would be the brain using such a process to make useful decisions. "Useful" not in a sense of a mixed strategiy. You can roll dice to do that.)
But, no, it's not "any day now." The required size and structure of the ANN is to be determined.