alt Hacker NewsI'm pretty sure at this point that Anthropic is training mixture models (at least in the heavy pre-train) and deploying them dense with explicit loss on thinking trace coherence.
Having a thinking trace that is legible, coherent, and immediately implies the explicit turn output and/or tool use seems difficult if not impossible to reliably get from mixture models.
I predict MoE is a transitional technology, it's got too many problems and the benefits are...kinda grandfathered into the dogma at this point.
>I predict MoE is a transitional technology
While scaling laws hold (more weights = better), and time / financial costs are not trivial the incentives are in place to have MoE. MoE means you can have more weights without increasing the critical path of evaluating it.
I am curious what you believe the problems with it that would cause people to prefer using less weights. I'm not following what you mean by MoE can't have legible thinkings trace or tool use when existing models with MoE can.