alt Hacker NewsIt's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption.
I think a few things are going to happen:
1) The Open Weights never really fully catch up, because there's too much Engineering and integration going now. It's way more than 'weights'
2) The Commodity Chinese models never quite catch up for the same reason every other product they make does not catch up - while they will shine in some areas, it won't land fully.
3) Horizontal integration, supply chains, availability, SLA, security, branding, regulatory requirements - all of this will add up to something competitively maintainable.
Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling? Cars, computers, phones, airplanes ... always seems to be a way to nudge forward.
Good point though.
> Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling
I think basically every product category has hit ceilings by now, honestly. Do you think vacuum cleaners are significantly better at vacuuming than 10 years ago?
Not really. But they pivoted to doing autonomous vacuums instead. The actual vacuum tech doesn't seem like it's getting much better though?
Same with a lot of appliances. Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? They just have "smart home" stuff now, and they are probably much more energy efficient
I guess you can look at that as "not reaching a ceiling" as an overall appliance but the actual discrete technology is not changing or improving much imo