alt Hacker NewsI kind of disagree that asking for world changing results is setting the bar too high, people’s claims about their personal experience are that the world changing results are already here, productivity has been multiplied and costs have been reduced by some factor, and AFAICT everyone is using these tools, with many reporting a similar experience.
The fact that people’s personal experience using the tool don’t cohere with the impact the tool has had in the world to me doesn’t suggest a slippage between how long it takes for productivity multipliers to be felt, it suggests that these tools might actually be better at delivering the perception to the user (and where relevant, the user’s manager) of increased productivity while real productivity gains are lower, or maybe zero, or maybe negative in some cases.
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> it suggests that these tools might actually be better at delivering the perception to the user of increased productivity while real productivity gains are lower, or maybe zero, or maybe negative in some cases.
Or that the gains are in niche applications (like the GP's) that don't translate at scale.
The key word is "already". I myself absolutely expect world changing results. But that will need time. I can only say what I know. My own experiments in building nocodo, a coding agent are 12-13 years old. Pre-LLM. I used template based code generation and related ideas. Template processors and what not. nocodo.com is with me since 2013 maybe, you can verify.
I am a software engineer, most of my experiments are on GitHub. I would not have ventured into building the UI framework before LLMs.
And this is what bothers me - people are not looking at the generated software. Indies like us are experimenting like crazy. I live far outside the tech scene, in a small Himalayan village. But I resonate so much with the experiments, the methods, harness engineering and so many other topics. I see the benefits in how ambitious my projects are becoming.
I teach an online course on coding agents as a co-mentor. 600 young professionals join each month for a 2 week course. The joy of people, who did not know much technology, when they create a simple project management software by just typing English does not lie.
We used to write software in a very different manner. The entire mental paradigm has shifted. Many of my friends and acquaintances are on the fence, still! Some are internally giving up - unable to cope with this change. But the change is happening - the tooling is only going to get better.
Give it time. That is the opinion I hold.