alt Hacker NewsThere’s really not much question we are in a giant bubble that’s broadly been fueled by AI hype. The only serious question is how do we get out of it.
In a controlled scenario the AI sector gets a severe correction with many AI-focused companies wiped out but broader damage more limited. In an uncontrolled scenario the AI bubble bursts and takes the whole economy with it.
The likelihood of a scenario where suddenly the economics of AI suddenly start to make sense and enough $ flows in to make the present valuations defensible seems around 5% now and rapidly falling towards zero.
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I hope the general market will not drop by more than 25%-35%, while most AI companies will be wiped out.
I also expect Facebook, Microsoft, Google, to survive, and buy the good pieces that remains after the bubble popped. They each have income from other areas so are well position to survive the AI bubble.
Pure AI plays are the ones who will be annihilated. The best of the pure AI plays will be acquired by the old guard.
Bull markets are born out of skepticism. Everyone is fearful that there's a giant bubble so all eyes are on the fundamentals. When euphoria sets in, i.e. neighbors and co-workers start telling you how easy it is to make money on stocks, that's when you know you're at the top. We're not at the top and have seen multiple corrections/bear markets over the past 5-6 years.
Berkshire themselves have made investments into Google this year, a company at the center of this supposed "bubble"... make of it what you will but I think the market is setup to do pretty well in the near future.
A controlled scenario also looks very unlikely, right? I think some people with influence believe (rightly or wrongly) they can get even more power from an uncontrolled scenario.
> There’s really not much question we are in a giant bubble
IIUC, some indicators correlated with previous bubbles are lighting up now, which is being interpreted as evidence that AI is likewise a bubble. But what about indicators of previous non-bubbles? How did it look when textile mills were first industrialised, or kerosene replaced whale oil for lighting, or the electric grid became widespread, etc. -- real advances that materially increased productivity in a lasting way? If these same indicators lit up in those cases too, how can we distinguish bubble from genuine advance?
> In an uncontrolled scenario the AI bubble bursts and takes the whole economy with it.
How is the whole economy exposed to AI? Will Anthropic or SpaceX cratering threaten the entire financial system? NVDA will certainly correct, which is probably the biggest risk to the market, but then what? All the FCF being spent by Google, Amazon, MS, Meta, etc... will suddenly start flowing to dividends and stock buybacks again. It's not like their core business is selling AI. Apple will be able to get cheap RAM/chips again while also keeping their recently increased prices.
I could see an argument that the economy is currently being propped up by the hope of AI productivity gains, but that seems spurious.
EDIT
A comment above mentioned oil, and thus the inflation coming with prolonged high prices. That's way more of a concern than anything happening in AI.