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ldoughtytoday at 10:23 AM1 replyview on HN

> How is the whole economy exposed to AI?

Out of fear/ uncertainty, investors don't just pull out of AI, but the stock market in general.

More money shifts to bonds/commodities, not just people selling AI, but Coca-Cola and Johnson and Johnson, etc.

Of course, the impact would not be equally distributed, staple stocks will crash less, but there will probably be overall a huge pull out as people panic shift assets.

The resulting downturn likely means a crashing job market (temporarily) as government says "there's no way we could have known" and slowly try to stem the bleeding... Meanwhile unemployment shoots up in any industry that needs consumers (retail, food services, etc., but less so healthcare, government), and companies are nervous to hire on a shaky economy (see: early COVID).

The energy shock will also say inflation should go up, but the crash would want to decrease inflation... Companies will likely have to eat costs to keep prices low to sell inventory that cost them more to acquire.

It's all one big economy.

Note: this is all big hand wavey speculating. The moment things start to turn south there numerous things governments can do to help (e.g. handouts, reduce interest, open oil reserves, etc) so what ultimately does happen is anyone's guess. This is just one scenario based on the fact the current US government prefers uncertainty in the market, e.g. we've had peace with Iran ~8 times according to the USA, but Iran claims some of those statements are false. The straight had been reopened ~5 times, but Iran disagrees there to. Seems like the _goal_ is uncertainty


Replies

cickotoday at 11:22 AM

Who cares if "investors" are getting out of the market? They are not literally pulling money out of those companies but out of a casino that is the stock market.

One good thing in all this is, at least, if the AI stocks collapse that should not result in large-scale lay-offs. :) Quite the contrary.

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