Yeah. This is why BRK is in cash equivalents rather than being short.

Buffett has said a number of times that he never is intentionally sitting on the sidelines as a bet that things will go down. He’s simply there because he can’t find value. He’s also said that if he was dealing with millions rather than billions, he could probably find loads of value.

My guess is that is still true today, so the rest of us can probably find deals even in this market.

This is the way. Did the same thing for 3 years before corona. Drop came, went all in, fast forward a year or two, we did not die, and the stocks were about 150%-200% higher.

I'm doing the same thing now. Slowly starting to sell off the shares I have, putting the profit in bonds/interest accounts, when the bubble pops, I'll go all-in (phasing it in over a few quarters most likely) and then profit after 1-2 years.

Timing the market is far harder to predict than it will crash. As you said in 1997.

In 1997 the Nasdaq was about 1700. In hindsight sure, sit on cash and buy at 1200 in 2002.

In reality you'd have either bought around the 1900 mark in 2001, or perhaps waited until 2003 when it was back to 1900.

Then come 2009 you'd be back down to 1300, so would you have waited 12 years?

You are

1) betting the bubble continue until the bottom is even higher than today

2) betting that AI won't be bailed out by the most honest administration ever seen

3) betting that you can accurately time the bottom of the market

Good luck catching your falling knife