alt Hacker News> But anything you and I are aware of, they probably are too.
This is something that seems like it should be true but the subprime crisis (which didn't at all come out of the blue — anyone with any instinct at all should have understood when they first saw someone get given insane mortgages) argues against.
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DennisP • yesterday at 7:10 PM
A lot of mortgages were trash but the securities were a new and complicated financial product with a plausible story. A few people figured out the problems, but Michael Burry for example did it by combing through thousands of pages of prospectuses.
SpaceX bonds are just plain ol' corporate bonds, the same stuff these investors have been analyzing for a very long time.
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The subprime crisis was a story of perverse financial incentives causing the industry to play along with a fig-leaf statistical excuse for overrating derivative products, not bond raters botching ratings or missing "common-knowledge" info about specific mortgages.
If you want to suggest the subprime crisis as a mechanism for SpaceX bonds getting mispriced, you need to propose a model for how bond evaluators could be operating under a perverse incentive to under-rate it and somehow reap profits from doing so.