alt Hacker NewsI'm a bit skeptical of the token cost/ROI for all models, but sunk costs are sunk.
It has the feel of self-improving super-intelligence or bust to me. If you get that, the frontier model(s) run away with a faster exponential. It's a bit like semi with Moore's Law with silicon, GaAs could never catch up. If you don't get it, the fast followers crush the high investment and there's no moat. Not like they can enforce copyright!
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cyanydeez • today at 5:06 PM
not really a feeling; if you listen to ed zitron and strip out the vitriol, you still get the fact that the VCs are looking for some 5 trillion dollars in 5 years.
The onlly way that happens is if America turns into zimbawe.
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There's a world where frontier models run away with a faster exponential and still go bust due to being outcompeted on efficiency.
There's a point past which "intelligence" stops mattering as much, and IMO we're already there.
Consider which would be more useful (and profitable for its creator): a model that is 3x/5x/10x as "intelligent" as Mythos, for whatever your favorite yardstick of intelligence is? Or a model that is as "intelligent" as Opus 4.5, but can run at reasonable speed on a typical consumer laptop/cell phone?