logoalt Hacker News

khalictoday at 11:59 AM5 repliesview on HN

Seing a bell curve and singling out a factor that appears only for the 15% of the total time demonstrates some pretty extreme tunnel vision

Edit: https://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb


Replies

embedding-shapetoday at 12:11 PM

Yeah, I don't understand the HN title. The "downfall" seems to have began in 2018-2020 sometime, what AI was launched and popularized at that point that would have killed SO? LLMs were basically useless until GPT3 which appeared in middle-2020 sometime, after the downfall seemingly already had begun.

show 2 replies
fluoridationtoday at 12:08 PM

It's not really a bell curve. There was obviously a downwards trend from 2016 onwards, but 2023 definitely precipitated the fall to zero. Without AI they might have lasted at least a couple more years, or the activity might have stabilized to a new floor greater than zero.

show 3 replies
mmwakotoday at 12:06 PM

this. Thanks for pointing it out, I fell for "oh it was just AI" at first.

airstriketoday at 12:03 PM

This isn't really a bell curve.

show 1 reply
j_maffetoday at 12:21 PM

You don't just fit a Gaussian distribution to a timeseries dataset. That's not what a Gaussian curve is designed for at all. https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1725:_Linear_Regr...

show 1 reply