I agree with you for the most part. However they have been raising a lot of cash, and to do so they took on a ton of debt.

It's a totally reasonable investment as long as they are within shooting distance of the market leaders, but the more they lag behind (i.e. the longer it takes for them to release their next model on par with industry leaders) the more hurt they're going to be in.

If they can't materialize returns off the tens of billions of dollars they just raised then it will come back to bite them hard.

Luckily they have a ton of options (such as selling compute) but it's still not a great look and the market is going to hammer them given the opportunity.