> This creates a level of bias, even if banks didn't have incentives to write bullish projections.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think this is misleading. The bad estimate of fair price is _overwhelmingly_ due to incentives for bullish projections. I have no source to back this up, aside from common sense. SPCX is supposedly an AI-company now, even though we all know this is a lie. It's AI-only revenue within 5 years[1] is projected to be larger than most SP500 companies' full revenue today[2]. On the face of it, this is silly, and I don't accept that all the analysts group-thought their way to believing it.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/goldma...

[2] https://stockanalysis.com/list/sp-500-stocks/