With a GPU ban, then the PRC will accelerate domestic "AI chip" R&D and production, while still getting-away with grey-market imports for their AI/LLM R&D.

Without a GPU ban, then the PRC will accelerate domestic AI/LLM R&D and deployment, while still funding indigenous AI chip development efforts.

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From afar it makes America look so insecure and almost pathetic: China's R&D ecosystem is a huge mass with a lot of inertia - trade policy and embargos will be about as effective against it as the paper they're printed on.