This assumes all the open models are just a result of distilling Anthropic models. Which remains to be proven.

And if they are, the point remains that Anthropic has a brittle product advantage that users and investors should be cautious about.

I don't think the timeline is plausible for Moonshot to have done any distillation from Fable, which means any distillation training data would have been from Opus.

The frontier labs have been tightly controlling model access lately to prevent further distillation, and the Chinese labs are still catching up rapidly - it's likely that whatever moat they used distillation to overcome early on is already dry

[Pending evidence that Chinese models are only based on distillation]

While I am sure some do distillation (even r/LocalLLaMA is full of randos bragging about it), I wish the companies named by Anthropics would respond to these accusations.

I think at least deepseek can easily take Anthropics to court and win a defamation case. The number of requests allegedly done from deepseek IP range is so small it is barely enough to run a few benchmarks.

> f Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they convince investors to invest in them,

I dont care if that company dies. Or if OpenAI dies. I dont mind investors investing into other things either.

You can simplify your question even more:

To everyone praising free and open source software, if software companies don't make money, how are they and YOU going to get paid, PERIOD?