alt Hacker NewsImagine there’s a school where all the kids there are being tutored by the best. Also imagine a bunch of neighboring schools drastically falling behind that would need insane amounts of money to keep up.
This becomes a problem because all the kids from the rich school will dominate the order schools. They’ll get even more money as time goes on from their kids paying it forward to the point where all other kids are bound to work for them.
Now let’s say one other school does have the money for best tutors, BUT they know they’ll run out pretty quickly. Instead of trying to compete in a losing game, they decide to give every school in the world access to their elite lesson plan. Now, for a time, everyone will be on close to a level playing field. If the other schools improve upon their own lesson plans and keep sharing them with others, one day the elite school will wake up to find they are no longer on top. The parents have started to move their kids to other schools because the rich school is no longer attractive at the high cost they charge students
Sure and to complete your analogy here, the rich schools realize that the curriculum they develop and put a lot of time and money into creating is just used by the cheap schools, so they stop developing it because nobody loses money for long and so neither the rich or cheap schools develop any new curriculum.
Now what?
The fundamental problem here is incentives and tactics. Either the models are actually better (which I think the iPhone to cheap Android phone really speaks to, i.e. they do the same thing but one is 50x better at 5x-10x the cost) and thus they can be gate kept and like the iPhone the vast majority of profits go to a select few with high end implementations. OR the models aren't actually that much better, companies lose a fortune and then nobody can create any better commercial models or build out scale needed for open source models because it's not profitable.
We could wind up with only open-source models or something along those lines, but if the compute and scale is needed to train the models, nobody will be able to do that profitably and so AI research is either gate kept and silo'd for something like military applications or it just doesn't really happen because there's no funding for this scale of build out.