alt Hacker NewsThe U.S. "executive" class is so obsessed with the "exploit" part of the explore/exploit cycle that it's very clear they are prematurely closing advancement. Better a little money and power for them now than a lot of money and power for their country/humanity.
This has an element of stochastic improvement so it's hard to predict but the chance of the U.S. "winning" this "race" is pretty bleak.
You see this all the time in communities that have internalized hierarchy as a "good", little kings of shit mountain vying for less and less at a higher and higher cost.
My personal hypothesis here is the Chinese government looked at the game and simply decided not to play:
An astute Chinese analyst could reasonably forecast that they had little chance of controlling the AI market due to sovereign trust issues, but would also note that AIs are just software.
When the dust settles the US still won't have factories, and the real value of AI models is still going to be embodying them and getting them to do real, consumer facing work.
Perhaps the most striking thing about the AI boom is how quickly the US abandoned the veneer of local manufacturing in favor of more expensive buildings producing nothing you couldn't make anywhere else on the planet...from imported parts.