People say this but windows and mac won the os wars and consumer linux distros are dead. No one I know uses open weights models to code day-to-day and very few use open weights models in prod for most llm tasks. This is less true for image/video stuff, where I think the competition is more vibrant.

I think the best gauge is company spend. Open weight models are a very small share compared to frontier models, and I'd bet that many companies mostly using ow models would switch to frontier if they could afford it. I also think most companies who are picking ow over frontier probably have deeper financial issues they should focus on.