alt Hacker NewsIt's hard not to be fatalistic about all of this now: In my mind, it's crystal clear that the investments will never be paid back. The revenue streams from all the companies involved don't add up. It must fail at this point.
That means losses. Big losses for some.
I assume that these off-the-books companies can quite literally be pinched off and the debt becomes the banks' problem, so the primary company, i.e. Meta, Oracle, can walk away but the banks will be left holding the bag.
We know what happened the last time the banks played their stupid games!
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For anyone old enough to remember attending bankruptcy/liquidation auctions of "dotcom 1.0" companies in 2000, 2001 or so and buying an Aeron chair, or similar, I really wonder what it will look like this time around. There was one point in time where only very slightly used datacenter cooling systems and diesel backup generators were selling for pennies on the dollar.
The banks aren’t the ones on the hook here. Private credit funds are.
And every time some points all of this out, they are "denier", "left behind" and all the other everything-ai fanatics can come up with. As for the imminent crash - I'm all for it. There's a whole generation that is incapable of thinking for themselves without an LLM telling them what to do or worse still - do it for them. And for much of the tech world, that is becoming the single point of failure.
As for China - I think their motivation is clear: if they could have pulled it off from the start, their business model would have been the same as MANGO's. Llamacpp opened up the floodgates and their best bet now is to use this and their resources to start pulling the rug from underneath MANGO. I'm not a fan of the "enemy of my enemy" philosophy - they can both be enemies but wile they are at each-other's throats (albeit not openly), I'll gladly sit back and grab some pop-corn.