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HaZeustyesterday at 5:11 PM1 replyview on HN

>"On top of it, we experienced UBI-lite during pandemic, and saw the inflationary result."

I sympathize with this take because it's the one I had, until I saw the data. On top of genuinely appealing to the fact it wasn't perfect UBI - which doesn't make it an invalid take just because you pre-emptively pointed it out - our inflation during COVID-era relief was overwhelmingly from abuse of PPP loan applications and payouts, disaster relief funds - and a healthy chunk to the federal subsidizing of state/local governments [1]:

"Congress has obligated approximately $5 trillion in response to the COVID pandemic although significant portions of this money remain unspent. For reference, in fiscal 2020, the total state spending for all 50 states was $2.28 trillion, or less than half of the pandemic relief spending. Of the obligated relief funds, approximately $1.8 trillion went to individuals and families through $844 billion in stimulus check payments and $666 billion in enhanced unemployment compensation.

Additionally, businesses received approximately $1.7 trillion, much of which came from the $835 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and $349 billion Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) Program. State and local governments received $745 billion, the health care industry received approximately $482 billion, and other remaining industries received approximately $288 billion."

To add, there's also the case that one of the industries most hurt from COVID, which was automobile sales, was impacted by the stimulus checks - but by less than 20% [2]:

"Despite this substantial demand response, fiscal transfers account for less than 20% of the surge in auto prices"

1 - https://www.taf.org/covid-19-relief-funds-two-years-later-wh...

2 - https://www.nber.org/papers/w34954


Replies

smallmancontrovyesterday at 5:28 PM

Also, the Federal Reserve bought $2 trillion of mortgage backed securities, pumping the housing market massively.