> The reason I think it’s useful to view queries as binary—they either seq scan or they don’t seq scan—is: the more you micro-optimize a query, the more of a risk you take that the query planner goes rogue. If you stick to querying by primary keys and indexes, the query planner will have a much easier time.

It's also important to notice the query planner optimizes for the average case, but often it would be better for the app developer if it was optimized for the worst case. But optimizing for the former is a much more tractable problem, so no wonder that's what is implemented.

I had to fight against the query planner when it would optimize a query for the average user, with few rows in a given table, and it would pick one index that made sense for that situation and return a result in less than 10ms. However, when a heavy user issued the same query, depending on the exact parameters the worst case could take over 1 second. So I had to write a much more complex query to force it to take another path with a different index, which would be slower in the average case, but in the worst case would take still less than 100ms. Avoiding timeouts was much more important for my company than taking 10ms more in the average case.