The point of open weight models is that this is not possible, companies will be built by taking 'contraband' chinese open weight models and marketing as something from the US
Without a massive amount of post-training, it will be obvious that they are Chinese models with Chinese political ideology. I doubt that there's any business model that would work there.
A "ban" is a legal prohibition. The possibility of the ban is solely a legal decision. Open weights might make it easy to violate a ban, but it does absolutely nothing to prevent one from being possible. The questions as to whether a ban would be effective hinges entirely on the ability and desire to enforce it.