alt Hacker NewsI mean wisdom of crowds, super-forecasters, calibration and pre-registration are useful tools that can result in better predictions, turning it into online gambling is where it went sideways.
I mean wisdom of crowds, super-forecasters, calibration and pre-registration are useful tools that can result in better predictions, turning it into online gambling is where it went sideways.
Mini-rant: Promoters claim that the system serves a public good by helping society discover/converge on useful truths sooner.
Even where the question/event is of public interest, the opposite happens instead. People with expertise or non-public information are incentivized to misdirect and delay as long as possible, as that maximizes what they can make from betting.