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watwuttoday at 6:37 AM1 replyview on HN

That is the quote of famous financial advisor made in 1986. It keeps being repeated, because bubbles and their pops and irrational markets are frequent enough.

There is nothing controversial about claim that markets are irrational, bubbles pop impossible to predict while bubble being visible. Previous bubbles were the same.


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simianwordstoday at 6:44 AM

The problem with this type of thinking is that it deliberately ignores the times that bubbles were predicted incorrectly.

Imagine there was a guy. He kept predicting that a war may happen in 1 year. Keeps getting it wrong. In 59 a years a war does happen. He then retroactively justifies his wrong predictions by claiming “but people are irrational and it’s hard to predict”.

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