Past bubbles I read about were recognized correctly for years before they popped. The pop was hard to predict, the bubble was routinelly recognized. These were not wrong prections, these were correct assesments of the situation. Bubble exists before it pops.

Markets being irrational is again, nothing controversial.

That is history. Your war predicting guy is a made up analogy. And he may just be correct about his assesment of the situation - war is being actively planned and prepared, actors want it and we are all waiting till Trump or Hitler or whoever decides that "now".