You're not necessarily wrong for now, but that framing might be too narrow.

It is not beyond imagination that a government can limit availability to future frontier versions of the open weight models produced within their jurisdiction.

It pays to be a little paranoid and have a diversified portfolio of options to choose from. Anything that can have major geopolitical consequence is especially susceptible to such structural risk.

This has nothing to do with any particular government/country/jurisdiction except insofar as said country is a leading power and hence has immense leverage across a very wide range of dimensions. Said more plainly, it is safe to assume that a country with immense power is unlikely to be willing to cede or distribute such power to others.

If you're hung up on my choice of "the West", consider that I mean it geopolitically and economically, so broadly includes North America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea. I could have also said the Global South, but I think it is a fair statement that none of those countries have the means, but I'd be totally cool and happy if I'm proven wrong!