alt Hacker NewsI really do appreciate the effort but the data doesn’t reflect current conditions, and it’s falsified given it’s been virtually closed for months, certainly the same as 30% throughout that is the models default parameter, and we didn’t see ex. prices at $150/barrel 3 weeks in, or a host of other things it predicts.
EDIT: I’m not saying it doesn’t matter the strait is closed - it does! - it’s just, what are we to do with a model that generically tells us oil barrel prices is at $150 3 weeks in, when we are months in?
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The thing I've heard now in several places is that China is drawing down its massive secret stockpile (its _greatly_ reduced imports) which counterbalances a huge amount of this
I do generally agree that the theoretical model being _this_ misaligned with the reality in front of us feels a bit hard to use
That's kind of the point because it hasn't been totally 100% closed. There's both sanctioned and unsanctioned oil flowing, which is the point of the scenarios in the simulation. Also it's more of a simulation/stress tool at a sustained closure than a prediction one