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alephnerdyesterday at 11:11 PM1 replyview on HN

> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time...

Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1].

The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result.

> or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them...

This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3].

Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran").

Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ)

[0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...

[1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar...

[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f...

[3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir...

[4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-...

[5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7...

[6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88...

[7] - https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4


Replies

walrus01today at 2:25 AM

> leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4]

Would you say that in the broadest possible sense, this is because China cares much more about keeping an unrestricted flow of (not $140-160 a barrel) oil coming from the Persian Gulf, oil/gas exports and outbound flow unrestricted for their own domestic consumption. They think that's much more important, given a choice and the impact of oil NOT flowing to their economies, than supporting the continuation of the IRGC and status-quo leadership in Iran.

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