> China has also been sending extensive signals of "we support you and will engage in full trade with you, and retain full diplomatic relationships, etc, no matter what you're doing to your own people domestically" to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stuff like offering

China has started disengaging with the Taliban now that Pakistan is fighting a war against them and after the Taliban are sending their leadership to India almost every month [0][1], backing the Taliban's position [2], and the Pakistani Taliban (which has the same leadership as the Afghan Taliban) has continued to attack CPEC [3] and targeting Chinese personnel [4].

> If China did an about-face on maintaining friendly relations with the IRGC, that would also be a big signal to the Taliban that maybe their "all weather" relationship with China was a bit more precarious than they previously thought it was

China snubbed the Taliban by not condemning Pakistan's strikes on Afghanistan [2] and not pressuing Pakistan to allow Afghanistan's ascension in the SCO [5].

And there's a reason the Taliban are sending their wounded for treatment in India and not China [6].

> With the recent minor border war...

The Taliban are treating the war as existential. And they are now diverting Afghan cargo to Indian operated Shahid Beheshti Terminal in Iran [7].

[0] - https://amu.tv/247309/

[1] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202607073529

[2] - https://amu.tv/245784/

[3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/world/asia/pakistan-china...

[4] - https://afghandiaspora.org/2026/06/30/beyond-security-why-ch...

[5] - https://amu.tv/244941/

[6] - https://www.afintl.com/en/202606204287

[7] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/afghanistan-urges-india-...