You forgot “what is the definition of ‘sufficiently capable’”. Presumably it’s anything that competes with Anthropic. If they’re around in a year, presumably they won’t care about Fable level and will only think that whatever competes with Claude 7 or whatever needs to be restricted.
GPT-2 was 'sufficiently capable' according to Amodei: https://explainx.ai/blog/dario-amodei-gpt2-openai-open-sourc...