I don't have much background in the area, but I am surprised to see that everyone here basically agrees a crash is imminent. There are disanalogies to past crashes that don't convince me that a big crash is definitively coming in the near term.

For example:

- Anthropic makes a profit right now and is seemingly on an exponential upward trajectory, so the debt being too much for it doesn't seem compelling to me.

- AI technology continues to get better exponentially and doesn't have any clear sign this trend is flattening. If anything, it's accelerating. So it's plausible the investor value is legitimate for these companies given the massive potential for continued profitability.

- I would say markets are typically very good predictors of the future. Many sophisticated investors know about the case for the future crash and are still buying at these valuations.

I am open to being wrong, but the assessment in the blog seems one-sided to me.

Polymarket currently puts the chance of such a downturn at 20% by December 2026. Seems like most people would put higher chances here, but I'm not convinced by the arguments. (https://polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by)