Are you saying we shouldn't trust cryptographers, because there'll be more demand for their services if we need to urgently migrate to post-quantum algorithms? That seems a very radically-skeptic perspective that makes it hard to know anything, and I doubt any serious engineer applies it in the general case. Or were you talking about someone else?

In any rate, nobody (or at least none of the people I've heard from) is claiming we'll definitely have CRQCs by 2029. They're saying there's a real chance that we will, and that that means now's the time to pull the trigger on post-quantum migrations; if we wait for certainty, it'll be too late. Quoting Valsorda from the post I linked above (which I strongly recommend reading in full):

> If you are thinking “well, this could be bad, or it could be nothing!” I need you to recognize how immediately dispositive that is. The bet is not “are you 100% sure a CRQC will exist in 2030?”, the bet is “are you 100% sure a CRQC will NOT exist in 2030?” I simply don’t see how a non-expert can look at what the experts are saying, and decide “I know better, there is in fact < 1% chance.” Remember that you are betting with your users’ lives.

> Put another way, even if the most likely outcome was no CRQC in our lifetimes, that would be completely irrelevant, because our users don’t want just better-than-even odds of being secure.